Packers/Bears selected for Sunday night; wild chase for playoffs

Football Betting Lines

12/26/2006 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL has moved this coming Sunday night's game between Green Bay and the Chicago Bears to 8:15 p.m. (et) as part of the flexible scheduling system.

There were other games moved back to later in the afternoon, as the NFL gears up for a frantic finish to the regular season. Incredibly, six teams are fighting for two playoff spots in the AFC and five clubs are battling for the final berth in the NFC.

Also as part of the flex scheduling, the Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts, and Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles games will move to 4:15 p.m. (et). All three of those contests have playoff implications.

Going into the final week, the New York Jets, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Denver and Kansas City are all battling for the last two playoff spots in the AFC, although the Broncos and Jets control their own destiny.

Meanwhile, in the NFC, the New York Giants, Green Bay, Carolina, Atlanta and St. Louis are tangling for the final playoff spot, but New York holds a decided advantage going into Week 17.

The New Year's Eve battle at Soldier Field between the NFC North rivals could mark the final game for Packers quarterback Brett Favre, who still hasn't announced if he's decided to retire following this season.

The Bears have already clinched the division title and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, but the Packers could know by Sunday night if they're still in the postseason race. One of five teams at 7-8 in the NFC, the Packers need to win their final game, and get help elsewhere, to have a chance.

Considering the Packers were crushed, 26-0 at home by the Bears in the first week of the season, it could be difficult at best for Favre and company to pull out a win, although Green Bay has won its last three games.

Elsewhere in the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles control their own fortune to win the East following a 23-7 road victory Christmas Day over the Cowboys. The Eagles can win the division with a victory versus the Falcons, or if the Cowboys lose earlier in the day at home to Detroit.

Despite losing six of their last seven games, the Giants could get into the playoffs, likely with just a win over the Redskins. A New York triumph, plus a strength of victory tiebreaker over Green Bay puts the Giants into the playoffs. New York could still get in with a defeat, but only if Green Bay, St. Louis, Atlanta and Carolina all lose.

Most of Sunday's NFC playoff scenarios would be eliminated if the Giants simply win Saturday night. A New York triumph would knock out Carolina, Atlanta and St. Louis.

In the AFC, the Jets, coming off a 13-10 win at Miami Christmas night, can get a wild card berth with a home win over Oakland. If the Jets somehow lose to the 2-13 Raiders, they could still back in with losses from other teams.

Denver can also get a wild card spot with a home win over San Francisco or with a loss from the Chiefs.

That leaves Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Kansas City on the outside looking in. The Bengals need to win at home against Pittsburgh, and get a loss from the Jets to get in. Cincinnati can also make the postseason with a win, combined with loss from Denver and Jacksonville.

The Jaguars and Chiefs play each other in Kansas City, but the winner of that game would have to get losses from three other teams to have a shot at the playoffs.

The Titans, a dangerous team with six straight wins under the superior play of rookie quarterback Vince Young, have to win at home against the AFC East champion Patriots, and then get losses from Cincinnati, Denver and Jacksonville.

Playoff seed positioning is still up for grabs and it'll all be decided from the late afternoon games. At 13-2, AFC West champion San Diego is currently the top seed in the conference. A Chargers win at home against Arizona would secure that No. 1 seed, but a loss, combined with a Baltimore win at home over Buffalo would give the Ravens the top slot.

The AFC South champion Colts, losers in three of their last four games, still can get a first-round bye with a win, combined with a loss by the Ravens.

There are only two games the final weekend with no playoff implications: Cleveland/Houston, and Seattle/Tampa Bay. The Seahawks have already won the NFC West and cannot get a bye. Chicago and New Orleans have locked up first- round passes in the NFC.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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